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感謝大家訂閱皮埃羅·斯加魯菲（Piero Scaruffi）的鈦媒體72問(wèn).知識(shí)專欄《硅谷的秘密》。我是今天的提問(wèn)者趙何娟。前面我們講了很多硅谷如何面對(duì)失敗，教育系統(tǒng)又如何在硅谷發(fā)生著作用，同時(shí)我們聽到了機(jī)器人在底特律發(fā)明，卻為何在硅谷大放光彩成為趨勢(shì)的故事，全世界很多人都把硅谷作為風(fēng)向標(biāo)，硅谷往哪走，他們就往哪走，那么問(wèn)題來(lái)了，硅谷又是從哪里來(lái)預(yù)判下一個(gè)熱點(diǎn)或者趨勢(shì)的呢？

正文：

When people ask me what is the next trend in Silicon Valley? You think, I am so stupid to ask Apple or Google apple and Google we simply tell you that product that they are developing period,  if you ask them what is the next big thing apple will tell you the next big thing is the iPhone 7. Of course, what does that tell me nothing absolutely nothing. What I do I is to go to GitHub. There are the number one projects concrete ranks you know basically many people are interested in this project I got to get hub so four years ago, you saw a lot of machine learning projects very high. This was before people went crazy about AI. 

有人會(huì)問(wèn)我硅谷的下一個(gè)趨勢(shì)是什么？你覺(jué)得我會(huì)笨到去問(wèn)蘋果或谷歌下一個(gè)趨勢(shì)是什么嗎？因?yàn)樗麄冎粫?huì)告訴你，下一個(gè)趨勢(shì)就是他們正在研發(fā)的產(chǎn)品。如果你問(wèn)蘋果下一個(gè)重要的技術(shù)是什么？他們會(huì)告訴你是 iPhone 7。但這個(gè)答案又有什么意義呢？并沒(méi)有，我會(huì)去GitHub那上面看排名第一的開源軟件項(xiàng)目是什么？多少人會(huì)對(duì)這個(gè)項(xiàng)目感興趣？幾年前，你可以在GitHub上看到熱門的機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)項(xiàng)目。那時(shí)人們還不會(huì)對(duì)人工智能這么的瘋狂。

The whole movement of open source software and hardware is extremely important that's where people really do what they think is important during the day they work at the company and they just follow orders if the boss decided to develop the iPhone 7, I would work on the iPhone 7. Why? Because they are paid a salary to do that, then I go home and work in something completely different. I want to know what is a different thing that you are doing because that's you are somebody knows the technology very well and you are wasting your time your precious time on that thing.

那些人為自己覺(jué)得重要的事情而努力工作。在硅谷，一些蘋果的工程師接到上級(jí)的指令要研發(fā) iPhone 7，他們就去做這款手機(jī)，因?yàn)樗麄兲O果給他們工資。完成工作之后，他們回到家里會(huì)做一些完全不同的項(xiàng)目。他們也知道自己在做什么？什么是真正重要的技術(shù)？他們不會(huì)在其他事情上浪費(fèi)時(shí)間。如果你知道什么技術(shù)很重要，你不會(huì)在一些你認(rèn)為不重要的技術(shù)上寶貴的時(shí)間。

Tell me what it is the next track? So, it's extremely important and people underestimate now when the dotcom, at the begin of the internet, the big problem was how do you make money out of it. Why? Because in Silicon Valley, everybody was doing for free so all these products are free. Search engines are free, social media free. How do you make money? The venture capitalist couldn't figure out how do you make money. You know the traditional business plan was, I make this laptop, I sell it at this price.

你可以告訴我下一個(gè)技術(shù)發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)是什么嗎？知道這個(gè)趨勢(shì)非常重要，但是很多人都會(huì)低估了解趨勢(shì)的重要性。在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代初期，人們的問(wèn)題是你怎么樣才能賺大錢？為什么這樣問(wèn)？因?yàn)樵诠韫鹊拿總€(gè)產(chǎn)品都是免費(fèi)的，所有的產(chǎn)品都不收錢。社交媒體和搜索引擎都是免費(fèi)的，你怎么樣才能賺錢呢？風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人就會(huì)問(wèn)你怎么樣才能盈利？傳統(tǒng)的商業(yè)模式是：我做出了手提電腦，把它賣掉，我就賺到錢了。

So, in the business plan that you present to venture capitalist, you show these are the cost, the revenues and the profit. Very simple to understand but when all these kids came out with do I have this great idea for an app for an application of the internet. Okay, how much does it cost? Free. 

所以你向風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人展示商業(yè)計(jì)劃，要告訴他們成本是多少，產(chǎn)品是什么，預(yù)計(jì)有多少收入？你的商業(yè)計(jì)劃必須簡(jiǎn)單易懂。但是，年輕的孩子想到很好的點(diǎn)子，想要做應(yīng)用程序或者是網(wǎng)絡(luò)插件時(shí)，你去問(wèn)他們這個(gè)產(chǎn)品要多少錢？他們會(huì)告訴你說(shuō)不用錢。

What is the money? So, the dotcom crashed also because venture capitalist could not understand how you are going to make money. And eventually it was really yahoo was first to recognize. At the beginning, yahoo was very smart. They come up with idea we can create massive advertising revenues but the problem is free. It took a long time for the traditional businessman to understand a free product is very available today the number one company in the world is Google whose product is free. 

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅的原因是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人不知道這些產(chǎn)品要怎么賺錢，所以當(dāng)時(shí)雅虎就非常聰明，因?yàn)樗麄兿氲嚼脧V告創(chuàng)造收入。他們的產(chǎn)品確實(shí)是免費(fèi)的。傳統(tǒng)的投資人也花了很長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間才明白，免費(fèi)的產(chǎn)品也是可以賺錢的，而且還非常的有價(jià)值?，F(xiàn)在世界上最好的公司就是谷歌，谷歌旗下的產(chǎn)品都不收費(fèi)。

Such a change requires, such a creative mind to think the number one product in the world is free. But if you were in Silicon Valley, you’re in the culture of not afraid of failure, the culture of “don't worry about the money”. The money is not the number one thing. The number one thing is doing something that is really great, that you really like and you really want that thing to be useful. 

所以我們?cè)谒枷肷弦龀鲛D(zhuǎn)變，變得更加有創(chuàng)造性，明白全世界最好的公司所做出的產(chǎn)品是免費(fèi)的。但是如果你在硅谷，你會(huì)處于一種“不怕失敗”、“不擔(dān)心金錢問(wèn)題”的文化當(dāng)中。在硅谷，錢不是最重要的。最重要的是，你在做一件很偉大的事情，你熱愛(ài)這件事情，而且你想研究出非常有用的發(fā)明。

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